The recent news out of the EU shows that David Cameron is campaigning desperately to obtain a new deal which would mean that EU migrants cannot claim in-work benefits within four years of arriving in the UK.
But, quite rightly, the question that is actually being asked is not whether this 'emergency brake' will actually impact net migration figures from the EU but whether George Osborne's new higher minimum wage will impact migration figures.
Perhaps, as identified by Sarah O'Connor in the Financial Times, the true pull factor is not in-work benefits but the higher minimum wage.
No one can truly predict if the new higher minimum wage will actually attract more EU migration as smaller businesses may struggle to absorb the increase in wages and therefore employment opportunities will be significantly reduced.
We shall all watch George Osborne's minimum wage proposal with bated breath.
It is possible that the higher minimum wage will make the UK more attractive to workers from abroad. One academic study suggests the relative strength of the UK minimum wage was one of the factors behind the influx of Poles to Britain after 2004. Even accounting for the fact that prices were higher in the UK, British employees of McDonald’s could buy 2.11 Big Macs for their hourly wage, while Polish employees had to make do with less than one.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/19aa5886-d1b8-11e5-831d-09f7778e7377.html#axzz40LCq1D8R
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